Russia

Brian Taylor Shows How Putin’s Mentality Shapes Russian Politics

(Re-published from SU News | July 5, 2018) The running joke among foreign analysts is that, despite Russia’s dismal FIFA ranking, it may emerge as the real winner of the World Cup.

Between now and July 15, 2018, millions of fans will flock to various Russian cities, including Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sochi, to watch their national teams compete for soccer’s Holy Grail. Billions more will watch the action on television.

“Emotions often get short shrift from social scientists trying to decipher political behavior, but Taylor insists they are integral to Russian decision-making.”

Although Team Russia has dialed up some surprise victories, President Vladimir Putin, who has invested more than $13 billion on stadia and infrastructure, seems to have more than soccer on his mind. Those close to him insist he is using the World Cup to foment feelings of national pride, while enhancing his popular standing.

“The World Cup is more important to Putin than you think,” says Brian D. Taylor, professor and chair of political science in the Maxwell School and the College of Arts and Sciences (A&S). “A lot has happened to Russia since 2010, when Putin won the bid to host the tournament—his re-election, the annexation of Crimea, Russian’s intervention in the Syrian war. The games come at a time when Russia’s standing in the world is precariously low.”

Taylor speaks with authority. A scholar of Russian and comparative politics, he is the author of “The Code of Putinism” (Oxford University Press, 2018), a new book about how Putin’s mentality shapes his country’s politics. As Russia teeters on the brink of economic stagnation and international ostracism, Taylor argues that mega events, such as the World Cup and the Winter Olympics in Sochi, four years earlier, have strong political ramifications. “Merely hosting the World Cup is a major coup. It shows Russia still matters,” he says.

Most of Taylor’s career has been a warm-up for “The Code of Putinism,” which he began researching five years ago. Drawing on hundreds of interviews and speeches, Taylor thinks Putin’s messianic vision could be Russia’s undoing.

Speaking by phone from his office in Eggers Hall, the bespectacled, clean-cut author riffs on how the code motivates Putin’s decisions and influences the way he and his allies view the world. “The code of Putinism has molded Russia’s political system, along with its economy and foreign policy, since Putin’s election as president in 2000,” says Taylor, who also authored State Building in Putin’s Russia: Policing and Coercion After Communism (2011) and Politics and the Russian Army: Civil-Military Relations, 1689-2000 (2003), both from Cambridge University Press. “Key factors of Russian politics—authoritarianism, Putin’s reliance on a small group of friends and associates, state domination of the economy, an assertive foreign policy—owe their existence to the code.”

Golfo Alexopoulos, director of the University of South Florida (USF) Institute on Russia, praises “The Code of Putinism” for exposing Putin’s worldview, leadership style and method of governing. “It is critical for Americans to understand Russian thinking and motives, so we can formulate an intelligent Russia policy that advances democracy and global security,” says Alexopoulos, also a history professor at USF. “Dr. Taylor has a deep understanding of contemporary Russia and its historical and cultural legacies.”The basic notion of the code was inspired by Max Weber, an early 20th-century German sociologist. He believed that people are motivated by not only rational self-interest, but also ideas, habits and emotions. Taylor builds on this insight to analyze Putin’s mentality.

In Putin’s case, ideas include statism, anti-Westernism, conservatism and anti-liberalism. “Putin is a great power statist who believes in a strong Russia at home and abroad. He also is a conservative, prioritizing the group over the individual, as well as tradition over change and reform,” says Taylor, who earned a Ph.D. in political science from MIT. “Putin’s Russia is a ‘service state’—not one that provides services to its citizens, but one that expects citizens to serve it.”

Habits are unconscious reactions to stimuli, rather than deeply considered ideas. Putin’s key impulses involve control, order and loyalty. “Many of his habits were cemented by the time he joined the KGB in the ’70s,” Taylor says. “He and his aides made their careers as bureaucrats, not politicians, so they are used to hierarchical organizational structures. Witness Putin’s early presidential slogan: the ‘vertical of power.’”

Emotions often get short shrift from social scientists trying to decipher political behavior, but Taylor insists they are integral to Russian decision-making. “Emotions relate to how Putin sees Russia,” he says. “They include feelings of resentment, vulnerability and loss of status, stemming from Russia’s perceived humiliation after the Cold War. Putin believes it is time to redress these feelings and gain back the respect of the world.”

That the Putinist code is making inroads into classrooms is proof Taylor is onto something. Lauren McCarthy, associate professor of legal studies at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, says “The Code of Putinism” is a must-read for anyone wanting to understand how Russia operates. “Once you immerse yourself in the habits, emotions and ideas that make up Putinism, everything that happens in Russia makes more sense,” says McCarthy, who teaches a course on Russian politics, law and society. “My students [who study the code] walk away feeling like they know how to interpret Russian politics and Putin, himself.”

Thomas Keck thinks Taylor is uniquely qualified to assess the return of Global Russia. “He is a leading expert on Russian politics, particularly the state’s military and law enforcement apparatus,” says Keck, professor of political science and the Michael O. Sawyer Chair of Constitutional Law and Politics in the Maxwell School and A&S. “Brian is a popular but demanding teacher, as evidenced by his courses on Russian politics and civil-military relations. His book could not be more relevant.”

Not since the Cold War has interest in Russia bordered on obsession, if not paranoia. Doubtless that the World Cup will help burnish the country’s newfound swagger … MORE

Teacher-scholar Brian Taylor Shows How Putin’s Mentality Shapes Russian Politics

William C. Banks Speaks to Bloomberg Law on the One Year Anniversary of Mueller’s Appointment

Senate Releases New Document Trove in Russia Probe

William Banks, a professor at Syracuse University Law School, discusses the release of 2,500 documents related to the chamber’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. He speaks with Bloomberg’s June Grasso on Bloomberg Radio’s “Politics, Policy, Power and Law.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-05-17/senate-releases-new-document-trove-in-russia-probe-audio

“Partisan Overtones”: William C. Banks Discusses House Russia Report with WIRED

THE HOUSE INTEL COMMITTEE’S RUSSIA REPORT DOESN’T LET TRUMP OFF THE HOOK

(WIRED | April 27, 2018) THE REPUBLICAN MAJORITY of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence released an over 250-page report Friday outlining its months-long investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. The full report, the key findings of which were published in March, finds that the Trump campaign did not collude with Russia. But it shouldn’t be held up as any sort of evidence of the president’s innocence—even though Trump and his political allies have already begun to use it as such …

… The Republicans did interview a number of key players in Trump’s orbit, but their statements were mostly accepted as credible without much scrutiny. “The House ‘investigation’ as sketched in this report essentially boils down to asking Trump campaign officials whether they colluded with Russia, and declaring the case closed when they all said ‘no,'” says Sanchez. Critically, they seem to have rejected numerous requests to subpoena documentary evidence that might call those accounts into question.”

“The House investigation was beset by partisan overtones from the beginning. Representative Nunes, chair of the committee, took every opportunity to act as an apologist for the Trump White House and to dismiss both the seriousness of Russian intervention in the election and the possible involvement of Trump campaign personnel,” says William C. Banks, the director of the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism at Syracuse University College of Law …

Read the full article here.

 

Game, Set, Match: William C. Banks Analyzes the Latest in the Manafort Case with Bloomberg Law

Trump Told He is Not a Criminal Target in Mueller Probe

(Bloomberg Law | April 4, 2018) William Banks, a professor at Syracuse University Law School, discusses reports that Robert Mueller told attorneys for President Trump that the president is not being considered as a criminal target. The news comes as President Trump’s legal team thins, revealing potential gaps in Trumps defense team. He speaks with Bloomberg’s June Grasso on Bloomberg Radio’s “Politics, Policy, Power and Law.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-04-04/trump-told-he-is-not-a-criminal-target-in-mueller-probe-audio

“Threat to Our Democracy”: William C. Banks Quoted by the New York Daily News on Russian Election Meddling

H.R. McMaster says proof of Russian meddling in 2016 election is ‘incontrovertible’

(New York Daily News | Feb. 17, 2018) President Trump’s own national security adviser thinks there’s “incontrovertible” evidence of Russian efforts to undermine American democracy.

H.R. McMaster’s blunt assessment Saturday — following an indictment charging more than a dozen Russians with illegal activity in the 2016 election — counters Trump’s claims that allegations of foreign efforts to sway the public in his favor were false.

“As you can see with the FBI indictment, the evidence is now really incontrovertible and available in the public domain,” McMaster told a Russian delegate at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

Russian officials, meanwhile, dismissed the indictment as “just blabber.”

The country’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, brushed off charges from special counsel Robert Mueller that a troll farm with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to unlawfully influence the election …

… The President appears more concerned with his election win not appearing tainted by outside help than with securing against America’s vulnerabilities, experts warned.

 “These indictments remind us that the Mueller investigation has always first and foremost been about Russian interference in the election,” said William Banks, a professor at Syracuse University Law School. “Just about everyone but the President has characterized their interference as a serious threat to our democracy.” 

Mueller, tasked with investigating Russia’s efforts after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, is also looking at whether anyone in the Trump campaign coordinated with the Kremlin and whether or not the President has attempted to obstruct justice …

The full article can be read here.

Make Information Public: William C. Banks Discusses Manafort Money Laundering Case with Bloomberg Law

Judge Lashes Out at Lawyers in Manafort Laundering Case

(Bloomberg Law | Feb. 15, 2018) William Banks, a professor at Syracuse University Law School, discusses why the judge in the Paul Manafort money laundering case is complaining that there have been too many secret filings in the case. President Trump’s former 2016 campaign chairman and his deputy Rick Gates have been accused of failing to register as foreign agents for political consulting they did for Ukraine and pro-Russian politicians there. Plus, Greg Stohr, Bloomberg News Supreme Court reporter, discusses a group of Supreme Court justices who have emerged as consensus-builders in the court, even as partisan in-fight takes over much of Washington politics. They speak with Bloomberg’s June Grasso.

 

“Cherrypicking”: William C. Banks Weighs in on the Nunes Memo in WIRED

READING BETWEEN THE LINES OF THE DEVIN NUNES MEMO

(WIRED | Feb. 2, 2018) AFTER WEEKS OF Twitter users demanding Congress #ReleaseTheMemo, the House Intelligence Committee—chaired by Republican Devin Nunes—disclosed the contentious four-page report to the public Friday, after President Donald Trump signed off on its release. And while, as expected, the document alleges that federal law enforcement officials abused their surveillance powers in investigating the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, national security experts see something very different. In fact, they see almost nothing at all—or at least not enough to make any definitive judgement calls.

“The dossier and Steele and all that—it’s cherrypicking a piece of what was probably a 50, or 60, or 100 page application.”

As had been rumored, the memo details supposedly improper actions by law enforcement officials in seeking a warrant to wiretap Carter Page, one of Trump’s campaign advisors. But understanding what the memo says—and, critically, doesn’t say—requires familiarity with the secretive Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, which governs requests made under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, better known as FISA. Those who know the law best say the memo is largely bunk …

… “The dossier and Steele and all that—it’s cherrypicking a piece of what was probably a 50, or 60, or 100 page application,” says William C. Banks, founder of the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism at Syracuse University College of Law

FISA applications also have to go through an in-depth protocol known as the “Woods Procedure,” during which the intelligence community needs to verify every single fact. For example, if the application says a person was on a specific train at a specific time, the agent would need to show Department of Justice lawyers how they found out that information. There are other oversight mechanisms as well. For example, applications need to be first certified by the Director or Deputy Director of the FBI, as well as the Attorney General, Deputy Attorney General, or Assistant Attorney General for the National Security Division. In other words, FISA warrants are reviewed at the highest levels, which is part of the reason Nunes’ allegations are so explosive—they implicate multiple parties at the very top of the US intelligence apparatus …

… “I can’t recall any instance in 40 years when there’s been a partisan leaning of a FISA court judge when their opinions have been released,” says Banks …

To read the full article, click here.

 

“Game Over”: William C. Banks Discusses FISA, Wiretapping, & Carter Page With The New York Times

How to Get a Wiretap to Spy on Americans, and Why That Matters Now

(The New York Times | Jan. 30, 2018) A fight over a classified memo written by Republican staffers on the House Intelligence Committee, which portrays as scandal-draped the early stages of the Justice Department investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russia, is heightening interest in legal issues about intelligence wiretap applications.

“Carter Page was doing business in Russia, talking to Russian diplomats who may have been involved in intelligence activities directed at the United States.”

On Monday, the committee, which is led by Representative Devin Nunes of California, voted along party lines to set in motion a process to soon make the memo public under an obscure House rule, while rejecting a request to simultaneously disseminate a rebuttal memo produced by the committee’s Democrats.

According to people who have read it, the Republicans’ memo describes what they portray as an abuse of government surveillance powers. It centers on a classified wiretap application the government submitted to a judge in the fall of 2016 that targeted Carter Page, a onetime Trump campaign official who had traveled to Russia in July 2016 and was preparing to return there that December, along with renewal applications.

What is a FISA wiretap?

The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, signed into law in 1978, requires the government, when eavesdropping on communications on domestic soil for national security purposes, to obtain permission from a judge on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court. The judge must agree that the target is probably an agent of a foreign power and will probably use the specific email accounts or phone numbers that the Justice Department wants to wiretap …

… David Kris, who ran the Justice Department’s National Security Division early in the Obama administration and helped write a book about FISA, says that when the department submits material from sources to the court, “it should also include information that would cast material doubt on their credibility — sources often come with bias or baggage of one sort or another.”

But, he said, “there is no requirement for elaborate accounting: Courts routinely accept and uphold affidavits that generally describe a source’s shortcomings” without every specific detail.

 William C. Banks, a Syracuse University law professor who has studied the FISA Court, said that without reviewing all the documents involved in the surveillance request, it was impossible to judge the importance of how Mr. Steele was described. But he emphasized that the government had broad leeway in seeking FISA warrants.

“Carter Page was doing business in Russia, talking to Russian diplomats who may have been involved in intelligence activities directed at the United States,” Mr. Banks said. “Game over. The standards are incredibly open-ended”  …

To read the full article, click here.

“Facts Will Be Discovered”: William C. Banks Updates Bloomberg on Jeff Sessions Meeting with Robert Mueller

In Investigation Milestone, Mueller Meets with Sessions

(Bloomberg Law | Jan. 23, 2018) William Banks, a professor at Syracuse University Law School, discusses Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. This week, reports emerged that prosecutors working for Mueller spoke with Attorney General Jeff Sessions, making him the first Trump cabinet official to be interviewed by Mueller. He speaks with Bloomberg’s June Grasso on Bloomberg Radio’s “Politics, Policy, Power and Law.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-01-24/in-investigation-milestone-mueller-meets-with-sessions-audio