Counterterrorism Policy

“What We’ve Learned in the Two Decades Since 9/11”: Syracuse Led Podcast and JNSLP Special Issue

In anticipation of the 20th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, the Institute for Security Policy and Law asked, How could we honor the memory of 9/11 and contribute to a greater good?

SPL Director the Hon. James E. Baker settled on a series of lessons-learned essays to be published in the Journal of National Security Law and Policy, drafted to inform the future rather than to adjudicate the past.

To lead this project, Baker asked Distinguished Fellow-in-Residence Matt Kronisch, who has joined SPL for 2021-2022 on secondment from the US Department of Homeland Security.

“Matt compiled a remarkable line-up of 20 authors, whose essays are clear, short, direct, and geared toward policy and legal implementation,” says Judge Baker. “They also represent a cross-section of practitioners and thought leaders.”

To announce the Special 9/11 Edition of JNSLP, SPL hosted a 9/11 Remembrance Webinar/Podcast in coordination with the ABA Standing Committee on Law and National Security with ABA President Reggie Tucker, followed by a conversation with Amb. Anne Patterson, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Michael Vickers, and Professor Sahar Aziz.

Professor Robert Murrett Discusses Afghanistan Withdrawal with WAER

SU Professor Weighs In on President Biden’s Plan to Remove Troops from Afghanistan

(WAER | April 16, 2021) A Syracuse University International Affairs professor says there is reason for concern after the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan this fall.

President Joe Biden announced yesterday the United States will fully remove troops from Afghanistan starting September 11th, exactly 20 years after the conflict began. Maxwell School Professor Robert Murrett also served in the navy for over 30 years. He says the US’ biggest focus now will be monitoring the Taliban’s activity in the country.

“The continued territorial gains which are likely by the Taliban forces, the continued viability of the Afghanistan government and challenges with the Taliban make it to them: whether it’s some sort of shared governing model or one that’s not shared at all in the case of significant territorial gains by the Taliban.” said Murrett …

Read the full story.

The Burden of a Militarized US Foreign Policy

By Corri Zoli

(Re-published from Medium.com | Oct, 30, 2019) What role should American troops play — some would say, standing in the crossfire — between distant governments and groups engaged in protracted armed conflicts, whose grievances long predate 9/11? What US obligations are owed to parties of these conflicts, even partners, particularly if their issues — which they believe are worth fighting and dying for — have little to do with US national strategic priorities? How many of the long-term conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which the US is often expected to manage, are defined by the same, solvable problems — ethnic strife, capitulation on human rights, bad actors using political violence rather than building pluralistic consensus — which could be solved if local governments would simply govern their own diverse constituencies with care and accountability? In the Mideast in particular, these “conflict drivers” create economic-conflict traps and erode region-wide stability. Should the US then pick up the pieces?

“What is bizarre about the uproar over the Trump Administration’s decision to pull out the small number of remaining US troops (1,000–1,500) in Northern Syria is that very few of these questions have even been asked, let alone answered.”

Unfortunately, there are far too many wars to which these questions apply — in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen (between Saudi Arabia, the Houthis, and Iran), Pakistan and India, in fractured Syria, lawless Libya, Sudan, and South Sudan, even the longstanding Israel-Palestinian conflict. If we broaden the lens to include — not just active wars and internal strife — but low-intensity conflicts and hybrid threats, the numbers rise to include post-Arab Spring Egypt, Bahrain, Jordan, and the Syrian-Civil War spillover into Lebanon. Is it reasonable to expect American servicemembers to protect and police these nations’ in light of their security threats, much of which stems from internal governance deficits? Can the American public feasibly support US intervention — at a cost of trillions, not to mention in lives — in 10 Mideast conflicts out of 16 nations?

What is bizarre about the uproar over the Trump Administration’s decision to pull out the small number of remaining US troops (1,000–1,500) in Northern Syria is that very few of these questions have even been asked, let alone answered. Few analysts mention the dismal empirics of war, the backdrop for weighing the merits of any lasting US presence in Syria, from policy, strategic, democratic, and other perspectives. From a democratic perspective, for instance, American voters have spoken, twice, in the last two elections, supporting both Obama and Trump Administrations’ promise of “no new wars.” From a policy perspective, the picture is even more bizarre: despite Obama’s best intentions, his own political appointees would not let him extricate the US from the Mideast. Hence, Obama called his Libyan intervention the “worst mistake” of his presidency, even as he initiated this and two other new US interventions in Syria and Yemen, adding three more wars to US ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq (which Obama tried unsuccessfully to end in 2011). Biden, who presided over Obama’s withdrawal ceremony in Iraq in December 2011, said: “thank you, Obama, for giving me the opportunity to end this goddamn war.” Such a sentiment was short-lived and, as most analysts believe, the prerequisite for the rise of ISIS in the Levant.

These examples illustrate how easy it is for all of us — even Presidents with foreign policy authority — to get lost in the mixed media messages, the twists and turns of self-serving politics, the topsy-turvy world of policy recommendations, and the “fog of war” complexities of conflict, all of which inexorably push for more war …

Read the full article.

 

William C. Banks Publishes on “Hybrid Threats, Terrorism, and Resilience Planning”

Hybrid Threats, Terrorism, and Resilience Planning. International Centre for Counter-Terrorism Perspective (2019). (With K. Samuel.)

We live in an inter-connected, inter-dependent world, not only in digital spaces, but increasingly between the physical and digital worlds. While our inter-connectedness and the accompanying rapid technological change bring with them widespread societal benefits, they can also deepen existing vulnerabilities and create new ones, such as in relation to critical infrastructure interdependencies. These technology-rich and highly dynamic circumstances can be exploited by those with criminal and malicious intent, including terrorists, with potentially extensive and catastrophic consequences, as the 2017 WannaCry cyber-attack with global reach, which nearly brought the United Kingdom’s National Health Service to its knees, illustrated.

We will illustrate this ironic confluence of good news/bad news by focusing on hybrid threats posed by cyber technology to critical national infrastructure. Our op-ed begins by briefly examining the concept of hybrid threats, before examining how they are materialising in the cyber world. The discussion then turns to examining how best to counter hybrid threats to our Critical National Infrastructure (CNI). We propose the development of more dynamic, integrated and innovative resilience planning solutions beyond those that currently exist.

The Concept of Hybrid Threats

Hybrid threats posed by state and non-state actors are expected by many to increasingly challenge countries and institutions globally. In 2016, this recognition led to the creation of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), which recognises diverse and wide-ranging forms of terrorism as a potential source of hybrid threats. The Hybrid CoE has defined a hybrid threat in the following terms:

  • Coordinated and synchronised action, that deliberately targets democratic states and institutions systemic vulnerabilities, through a wide range of means;
  • The activities exploit the thresholds of detection and attribution as well as the different interfaces (war-peace, internal-external, local-state, national-international, friend-enemy);
  • The aim of the activity is to influence different forms of decision making at the local (regional), state, or institutional level to favour and/or gain the agent’s strategic goals while undermining and/or hurting the target.

As the broad parameters of this definition reveal, hybrid threats can take a multitude of diverse forms. They can pose many practical and legal challenges too, such as how to detect, investigate, and attribute them in order to identify and bring to account their perpetrators, whether state or non-state actors … MORE

 

William C. Banks Joins ICT Panel on “When Conflicts End & How”

Professor Emeritus William C. Banks recently joined colleagues on an Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) World Summit panel entitled “When Conflicts End & How: ISIS as a Case Study”. The panel—the inaugural meeting of “The End of War Project”—took place on Sept. 19, 2019, as part of the 19th World Summit. Offered in memory of long-time INSCT supporter Gerald Cramer ’52, H’10, Banks opened the panel with a remembrance of Cramer’s life and career.

When Conflicts End & How: ISIS as a Case Study

The End of War Project Inaugural Meeting
In cooperation with Emory Law School

Chair: Dr. Daphné Richemond-Barak, Senior Researcher and Head, IHL Desk, ICT & Assistant Professor, Lauder School of Government, IDC Herzliya, Israel
  • Scott Allan, Senior Strategist, Bureau of Counter-Terrorism, US Department of State
  • William C. Banks, Founding Director, Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism
  • Laurie Blank, Clinical Professor of Law & Director of the International Humanitarian Law Clinic, Emory University School of Law
  • Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President, RAND Corporation
  • Assaf Moghadam, Director of Academic Affairs, ICT, and Associate Professor and Director of the M.A. Program in Government, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy, Herzliya, Israel

End_of_War_Project_2019

Second Thoughts About Taliban Peace Talks

By Corri Zoli

(Re-published from Newsday | Sept. 9, 2019) Two U.S. soldiers were killed in Kabul, Afghanistan, from small-arms fire during combat late last month. We likely won’t know specific details about the service members’ identities or circumstances for some time.

“The deaths of the U.S. soldiers run against the grain of many Americans’ usual assumptions about war.”

But what we do know is that ongoing attacks by the Taliban will test America’s resolve to end what President Donald Trump has called an “endless” war. In fact, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reportedly is reluctant to sign an “agreement in principle” between the Taliban and the United States, brokered by U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. And, the president has decided to cancel peace talks with the Taliban, at least for now.

Secondly, the deaths of the U.S. soldiers run against the grain of many Americans’ usual assumptions about war — and this post-9/11 war in particular — and most Americans’ feelings about losing service members in asymmetric conflicts.

The two service members were fighting on behalf of NATO’s Operation Resolute Support — a noncombat “train, advise, and assist” mission of more than 17,000 troops in Afghanistan, which started Jan. 1, 2015, after the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) ended Dec. 28, 2014.

While commanded by U.S. Army Gen. Austin Scott Miller, as the name suggests, this is a NATO mission. NATO allies with the Afghan government made the decision in 2012 (it has been reaffirmed frequently) to develop Afghan military capacity to defend and protect its citizens.

While Americans’ own security interests are at stake in this mission — no one wants to see another attack like 9/11 by al Qaeda operatives harbored in Afghanistan — the enormous investment in Afghanistan’s military capacity and security infrastructure comes at great price to Americans and citizens from other NATO-member states who have died in these combat and noncombat missions. Clearly, even this noncombat mission is beset with the armed conflict and violence associated with combat missions.

Of the 17,000-plus troops, the United States (8,475), Germany (1,300), and the United Kingdom (1,100) have provided the vast majority of “boots on the ground.” NATO members France and Canada, for instance, have zero troops in the fight. When U.S. administrations from Clinton to Trump pressure NATO members to contribute more to their own defense, the issue is not only about raising their GDP percentage contribution to NATO’s defense budget, it is also who is actually fighting in these security initiatives that European and NATO partners have deemed a priority …

Read the full article.

 

Corri Zoli Explores Terror’s Organizational Tactics in Terrorism and Political Violence Article

Zoli, Corri & Aliya H. Williams G’17. “ISIS Cohort Transnational Travels and EU Security Gaps: Reconstructing the 2015 Paris Attack Preplanning and Outsource Strategy.” Terrorism and Political Violence, 31 (June 2019).

In this article Zoli and Williams explore the underappreciated role of organizational tactics in terrorist violence in an understudied single case: ISIS’s execution of the Nov. 13, 2015 Paris attacks.

It is one of the first systemic reconstructions of the journeys made by two ISIS strike cohorts in the coordinated attacks, as teams traveled from the Levant to Europe. In contrast to other high-profile attacks, terrorism scholars have not undertaken a detailed reconstruction of this event, even while open source information is now available. By examining the transnational travels of foreign terrorist fighters, the authors identify ISIS’s distinctive terrorist outsourcing strategy in which operatives used their experiences to adapt to changing security conditions, while EU governments revealed limited responses.

Both elements in this tightly-knit dynamic—terrorist outsourcing savvy using FTFs and EU security policy failures—were necessary to achieve this high-profile attack.

Zoli’s and Williams’ essay contributes to descriptive empirical and theoretical knowledge of terrorist tactical innovation and adaptive operational learning, as these capacities are enhanced by on-the-ground organized networks to increase organizational (versus so-called “lone wolf”) campaign success. By using a single case interdisciplinary and exploratory framework, the authors claim that terrorism studies can delve deeper into superficially understood phenomena to isolate concepts with future cross-case value, such as cohorts and tactical adaptation.

James E. Baker Delivers Remarks on Counterterrorism at Oklahoma City University School of Law

INSCT Director the Hon. James E. Baker was a participant at the 2019 Stephen Sloan Seminar at Oklahoma City University School of Law on March 28, 2019. His remarks—delivered in conversation with Homer S. Pointer, Senior Fellow of the Murrah Center for Homeland Security Law and Policy—were titled “The Evolving Legal Framework of Counterterrorism.”

“Law is one thing that unites all Americans. By ‘law’ I mean the principles of justice, due process, and security.”

This year’s Sloan Seminar—“Assessing the Future of Domestic and International Terrorism”—was billed as a “a conference honoring the ground-breaking contributions of Dr. Stephen Sloan to the field of counterterrorism, [bringing] together experts in counterterrorism analysis, policy, and national security law.” It was co-sponsored by the Murrah Center and the Center for Intelligence and National Security at the University of Oklahoma.

Among other pressing topics, Baker addressed the recent attack in Christchurch, New Zealand, the role of corporate social responsibility in regulating social media content, the First Amendment implications of regulating hate speech, and Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. “Law,” he noted, “is one thing that unites all Americans. By ‘law’ I mean the principles of justice, due process, and security, not specific provisions of individual laws.” He added, “This law is America’s national security strength and virtue.”

In addition to Judge Baker’s remarks, other speakers explored “The US Perspective on the Future Direction of Terrorism,” “The European Perspective on the Future Direction of Terrorism,” and “Reflections on 40 Years of Counterterrorism Efforts, the Operational Dynamics of Terrorism, and What Lies Ahead.”

Joining Judge Baker at the seminar were Michael J. Boettcher, Senior Fellow at the University of Oklahoma Center for Intelligence and National Security; David N. Edger, Managing Director and Founder of 3CI Consulting LLC and former CIA officer in the clandestine service; Robert A. Kandra, Senior Advisor with the Chertoff Group, Advisor to the XK Group, and former CIA officer in the clandestine service; Homer S. Pointer, Senior Fellow of the Murrah Center for Homeland Security Law and Policy, Oklahoma City University School of Law; Magnus Ranstorp, Research Director at the Centre for Asymmetric Threat Studies, Swedish National Defense University; James L. Regens, Regents Professor and Founding Director of the University of Oklahoma Center for Intelligence and National Security; and Stephen Sloan, Noble Foundation Presidential Professor Emeritus of Political Science, University of Oklahoma.

Corri Zoli Presents Terrorism, Security Papers at ISA 2019

Corri Zoli, Director of Research at the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism, presented two papers and was a panel discussant at the 2019 International Studies Association Annual Convention in Toronto, Canada, on March 27 and 28, 2019.

At the Wednesday session of “Revisioning International Studies: Innovation and Progress,” Zoli presented on the “Challenges for Contemporary Special Operations Forces” panel. Her paper—”Terrorist Critical Infrastructures, Organizational Capacity and Security Risk”—joined others on topics such as computer-mediated threat assessment, weak states, ethic conflict, and terrorists’ use of emerging technologies.

On Thursday, Zoli joined the “Shaping the National Security State” panel and read “Leviathan Revisited: Assessing National Security Institutions for Abuse of Power and Overreach.” Other papers on this panel addressed civil‐military relations, the defense industry, and Cold War Military Balance.

Later in the same day, Zoli was the Discussant on the panel “New Directions in Qualitative International Studies” chaired by Eric Stollenwerk of Freie Universität Berlin. This wide-ranging discussion looked at modern qualitative international studies through the lenses of multi-method research, philosophy, autoethnography, and public diplomacy.

 

William C. Banks Joins CSRR as Distinguished Senior Fellow

Rutgers Center for Security, Race, and Rights (CSRR) has announced that William C. Banks has joined CSRR team as a Distinguished Senior Fellow.

Banks is a Syracuse University College of Law Board of Advisors Distinguished Professor and Emeritus Professor at the College of Law and a Maxwell School Professor of Public Administration and International Affairs. During 2015-2016, Banks was Interim Dean of the College of Law. He is the Founding Director of the Institute for National Security and Counterterrorism.

“I am especially pleased to join the Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR) as a Distinguished Senior Fellow,” says Banks. “Centers such as CSRR are an essential counterweight to the tendencies of governments that see security and terrorism problems through a religious and racial lens. While respect for basic human and civil rights should be at the undeniable core of law and policy in governments worldwide, glaring and persistent abuses abound. CSRR is an important voice for drawing attention to rights shortfalls and showing the way toward more just laws and policies.”